By John Becker

   Introduction-Ohio’s second congressional district stretches across seven southern counties. It includes part of Warren, Hamilton and Scioto Counties; and all of Clermont, Brown, Adams, and Pike Counties. Hamilton County’s voters have traditionally dictated which candidate will hold that seat. With redistricting and population shifts, Hamilton County is less dominant, but remains a large part of the district, and currently represents about a third of the electorate. The district is overwhelmingly Republican.

   History-Bill Gradison held the seat for about 20 years. Outside of Hamilton County, he was considered a Washington wonk and was perceived to not care about the rural counties. Rob Portman changed all of that when he won the seat in 1993. Rob was incredibly popular throughout the district and always won re-election by comfortable or very wide margins.

   After Rob accepted the position of US Trade Representative in 2005, Clermont County native, Jean Schmidt, won a very contentious special primary election for the CD2 seat. She narrowly won the general election that year against Paul Hackett. In 2006, Jean was challenged by former 6th district congressman, Bob McEwen, in the Republican primary election. Jean won a plurality and then went on to narrowly win the general election that year against Victoria Wulsin. Many establishment Republicans were horrified that Jean’s 51% win was way too close considering the district is very conservative and very Republican. Additionally, Ms. Wulsin is decidedly liberal and was underfunded.

   Why the close margin? Some people blame the fact that she is new to the job and has suffered through two primary elections and two general elections within about an 18 month period. They say that she has continuously been fighting off unfair attacks and has not had a chance to firmly establish herself. Furthermore, it was a year dominated by statewide Democrat victories. Others point to a number of missteps and controversies. They paint Jean as a weak candidate in danger of losing the district to the Democrats.

   Today-Although Jean Schmidt is not yet as popular as Rob Portman, she is perceived to be a harder worker and spends more time meeting with people throughout the district. Her popularity has been steadily increasing.

   Jean is being challenged again in the 2008 primary election. With two Hamilton County candidates in the race, her re-election chances were considered certain. That changed when former Hamilton County Commissioner, Phil Heimlich, recently dropped out of the race. Phil’s decision was prompted by the Hamilton County’s GOPs endorsement of Jean. The GOPs of Clermont, Brown, Adams, and Scioto Counties have also endorsed her. Jean will now face State Representative Tom Brinkman. Like Jean, Tom is thought of as very polarizing. He has a loyal following and is known as “tax-killer Tom” because he has never voted for a tax or fee increase. He was twice given the honor of “Most Principled Legislator” by fellow legislators, members of the media, and government staff. Additionally, Tom and Jean are very strongly pro-life. Jean is endorsed by Cincinnati Right-to-Life. Tom has introduced a number of pro-life bills in the Ohio legislature including the abolition of all abortions. His bill to restrict the use of the abortion pill, RU-486, was signed into law by then Governor Taft. Although Tom is very popular within Ohio House District 34, he is not well known elsewhere.

   Conclusion-If Tom is able to raise enough money to orchestrate a competitive campaign and create a positive “brand identification” with the voters, it will prove to be an interesting primary election. Otherwise, Jean will likely coast to an easy victory.

   The wildcards in any federal campaign are the 527 groups. They could jump into the race with big money to support either candidate. (The 527s operate completely independent of the candidates and their campaign committees.)

   The Democrats also have a primary election. Victoria Wulsin is the strong favorite in that race.

   John Becker is running unopposed for his third term on the Ohio Republican Party State Central Committee. He represents the 14th Senate District. Mr. Becker also serves on the Clermont County Republican Central Committee and is the publisher of “The Becker Report.” It is free and can be found at www.BeckerGOP.com.